The actual reason Bitcoin has refused to budge from its position close to $100,000

When this pressure cooker will finally blow?

Bitcoin has remained shy of the $100,000 mark for months.

Every ETF flow, corporate treasury purchase, and general bullish macro trend shouts: it should be worth a higher value. So, why the stasis?

According to Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, the answer is behavioral rather than psychological.

“Bitcoin’s trade behaves like tethered ones-72K now under the budget of heels of 100K. But once that tether breaks, it will not just walk…. It will rip.”

So this is what’s going on under the hood and exactly why this next leg could really go to $125,000, or even $200,000, faster than most were prepared for. The potential for these rapid price jumps should excite you about the future of Bitcoin.

1. Why Bitcoins Stuck around $100K

Despite a constant stream of demands, there hasn’t been much change in pricing. Here’s simple math by Hougan:

“Bitcoin’s supply this year is fixed at 164,000 coins.”

• As of the beginning of March, ETFs have bought all 57,000 BTC they produced year-to-date.
• Companies bought another 3x.
• Governments (yes, governments) reportedly bought around 40,000 BTC.

The summary is that the new demand consumes much more than 100% of the new supply.

So why isn’t the price shooting up?

The reason: Existing holders will be letting go at round psychological numbers like $100k.

Think: someone who promised themself years ago that they would go to convert that bitcoin into cash once it reached that magic number.

2. The “Air Gap” Theory: $100k- $125k Overnight

Hougan calls it punctuated equilibrium. It’s the nature of Bitcoin’s move that it shoots upward in spurts, not steadily.

As we have seen in the past:

• For the launch of the ETF in 2024, BTC unshackles on the way up from $45K → $72K, where it momentarily stalls.
• Then breakout from $72K: It will rip straight to $100K and stall again.

These are psychological ceilings, where people sell at round, familiar numbers. But once those levels are out, the price isn’t trickling upward; instead, it jumps.

“Once it gets out, the seller is draining from $100k; I don’t know where it goes from there. $125k? $200k? The demand’s that strong.”

3. The Age of Institutions is Here

Retail manias primarily fueled early bull runs of Bitcoin. That has changed.

This time, it’s:

• ETFs: Constant inflows.
• Corporations: Using BTC as a treasury asset.
• Governments: Quietly accumulating.

These players don’t flip coins for small change or panic sell. They don’t get involved in the hype-buy, and it changes everything.

4. Why Bitwise Expect Bitcoin Will Hit $200,000 by the End of the Year

Bet on Bitwise’s internal target for $200K, which by itself is nothing more than brilliant, but because that is where the next wave of selling presumably will be. This potential for Bitcoin to hit $ 200,000 should make you feel optimistic about your investments.

It’s all psychology in this market, where supply is fixed and growing demand creates terror.

• $100K is a nice round number where many early adopters take profits.
• $200K = The next “psychological ceiling” that follows after the $100K sellers are exhausted.

5. Altcoin Sea Change: Elastos, Cardano, and ICP Go Big

Bitcoin is in the headlines, but a few other altcoins have made some of their noise:

• Elastos has just created the first Bitcoin-backed stablecoin (BTCD), which is overcollateralized at 160–200% that could genuinely make use cases for DeFi in Bitcoin.
• Cardano x Ford: A proof-of-concept for legal data storage might put Cardano in the running for real-world enterprise use. Ford is paying attention.
• Internet Computer (ICP) topped development activity charts above even Ethereum and Cardano, signaling real construction, not just hype.

As institutions start taking the wheel, projects with straightforward utility and enterprise fit will lead. Think stablecoins, blue-chip DeFi, scalable L1s.

The Big Picture

Watch this: Fixed supply, soaring institutional demand, and a psychological dam at $100K. When does that break?

You’ll see omega candles. $100,000 to $125,000 overnight. Than $150,000 eventually. Maybe $200,000.

The setup is there. The demand is real. And sellers are dwindling.